Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1667 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1667 DEN 05:21 → MCO 10:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2137 DEN 15:32 → MCO 21:07 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1667 Southwest	DEN 05:21	MCO 10:54	5%	2%	1.3%	no record
UA 1437 United	DEN 06:08	MCO 12:03	8%	3%	1.9%	no record
WN 1668 Southwest	DEN 07:46	MCO 13:29	11%	3%	2.1%	no record
F9 4646 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:37	MCO 12:23	13%	5%	2.7%	86%
UA 259 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	MCO 23:41	14%	8%	1.2%	78%
UA 2292 United Flight history →	DEN 08:10	MCO 13:57	15%	5%	2.2%	89%
UA 2354 United Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MCO 16:04	19%	10%	7.3%	85%
UA 501 United Flight history →	DEN 13:48	MCO 19:39	23%	12%	7.3%	73%
F9 3312 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:36	MCO 16:30	32%	11%	15.7%	74%
WN 2137 Southwest	DEN 15:32	MCO 21:07	37%	9%	7.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	49m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → MCO 14:29DL 1576	5h 14m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON