Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 337 at 11:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 337 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	MFR 13:05	18%	4%	0.6%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13DL 2544	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	99%	93%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:02 → PDX 13:46AS 684	3h 59m Portland	PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon	7h 46m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:06AS 682	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	7h 56m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	7h 26m	99%	80%
United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	3h 44m San Francisco	SFO 10:37 → MFR 12:04UA 2322	7h 49m	100%	73%
United Details →	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	3h 18m San Francisco	SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51UA 5706 · flown by SkyWest	7h 30m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON