Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1292 at 00:07 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1292 DEN 00:07 → MIA 06:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3404 DEN 12:51 → MIA 18:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1292 American	DEN 00:07	MIA 06:12	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1418 United Flight history →	DEN 09:32	MIA 15:36	19%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 445 United	DEN 16:12	MIA 22:22	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 1310 American	DEN 12:20	MIA 18:21	30%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 3404 Southwest	DEN 12:51	MIA 18:46	31%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON