Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1836 DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 2320 DEN 15:41 → MKE 18:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1836 United Flight history →	DEN 09:57	MKE 13:24	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 3710 Southwest	DEN 10:58	MKE 14:15	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4718 SkyWest	DEN 13:27	MKE 16:52	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 560 SkyWest	DEN 17:32	MKE 20:58	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2320 Southwest	DEN 15:41	MKE 18:58	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON