tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5438 at 11:15, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5438 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 11:15 MRY 13:10 15% 5% 0.5% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 2h 54m Los Angeles LAX 10:28 → MRY 11:50UA 5613 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:04 → MRY 11:52AA 2879 7h 52m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 2h 58m Los Angeles LAX 16:15 → MRY 17:38UA 637 6h 53m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:06AS 682 1h 14m Seattle SEA 15:20 → MRY 17:42AS 2129 · flown by Horizon 6h 25m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 2h 10m San Francisco SFO 17:19 → MRY 18:18UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest 5h 53m 94% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON