Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2368 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2368 DEN 11:00 → MSN 14:10 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1894 DEN 18:00 → MSN 21:16 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2368 United Flight history →	DEN 11:00	MSN 14:10	14%	4%	0.5%	86%
OO 471 SkyWest	DEN 13:28	MSN 16:50	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1560 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:57	MSN 19:10	18%	8%	0.7%	80%
UA 1894 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	MSN 21:16	25%	7%	0.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON