Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1129 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 1129 DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4541 DEN 15:26 → MSP 18:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1129 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MSP 09:00	2%	1%	0.4%	91%
WN 935 Southwest	DEN 07:36	MSP 10:34	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 773 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	MSP 10:38	5%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 2877 Delta Flight history →	DEN 08:47	MSP 11:44	7%	2%	0.4%	85%
UA 397 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	MSP 12:40	8%	2%	0.5%	87%
F9 1150 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:38	MSP 13:47	10%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 4250 Southwest	DEN 11:16	MSP 14:15	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 732 United Flight history →	DEN 13:42	MSP 16:46	12%	4%	0.5%	84%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:08	MSP 14:08	12%	3%	0.4%	75%
DL 2271 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:08	MSP 19:15	13%	5%	0.5%	72%
WN 277 Southwest	DEN 13:57	MSP 16:57	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2076 United Flight history →	DEN 18:45	MSP 21:50	14%	7%	0.6%	76%
UA 2470 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	MSP 18:46	14%	7%	0.5%	76%
DL 1220 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:32	MSP 21:34	14%	6%	0.5%	72%
WN 4541 Southwest	DEN 15:26	MSP 18:26	16%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON