Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 2360 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day F9 2360 DEN 06:09 → MSY 10:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 859 DEN 17:01 → MSY 20:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2360 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:09	MSY 10:04	9%	3%	0.9%	81%
UA 2273 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	MSY 13:39	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 4252 Southwest	DEN 09:51	MSY 13:41	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 250 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	MSY 17:23	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 3419 Southwest	DEN 13:51	MSY 17:40	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1541 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	MSY 21:34	19%	8%	0.6%	77%
WN 859 Southwest	DEN 17:01	MSY 20:54	25%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON