Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Newark, leaving 00:02, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 00:02 → EWR 06:04UA 1745	1h 47m Newark	EWR 07:51 → MYR 10:03UA 1067	8h 01m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	7h 40m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:19 → MYR 13:39DL 3182	5h 54m	99%	89%
United Details →	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	2h 28m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	8h 23m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:26 → ATL 15:28DL 346	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:47 → MYR 18:06DL 1093	5h 40m	96%	81%
American Details →	DEN 11:09 → CLT 16:32AA 3299	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 20:03 → MYR 21:13AA 1085	8h 04m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON