Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1696 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1696 DEN 08:31 → OAK 10:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1048 DEN 18:06 → OAK 19:41 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1696 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:31	OAK 10:03	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 986 Southwest	DEN 11:06	OAK 12:39	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1698 Southwest	DEN 13:41	OAK 15:15	23%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1048 Southwest	DEN 18:06	OAK 19:41	34%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON