tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1736 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 OGG 15:05 20% 6% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 56m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 9h 30m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 1h 52m Los Angeles LAX 09:26 → OGG 12:11UA 417 10h 07m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 08:31 → OAK 10:03WN 1696 3h 53m Oakland OAK 13:56 → OGG 16:18WN 3181 11h 47m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 40m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 10h 53m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → DEN 08:24 → PHX 09:32AA 1404 1h 31m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 10h 08m 93% 76%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 3h 11m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 12h 19m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:59 → SLC 09:26DL 1581 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 10h 09m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 47m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 8h 54m 61% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON