Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3723 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3723 DEN 08:31 → OKC 11:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1184 DEN 17:31 → OKC 20:11 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3723 Southwest	DEN 08:31	OKC 11:16	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 6029 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	OKC 10:49	9%	3%	0.5%	97%
WN 1702 Southwest	DEN 10:46	OKC 13:32	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5324 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	OKC 13:01	12%	5%	0.5%	90%
UA 1656 United	DEN 13:24	OKC 16:13	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 392 Southwest	DEN 15:06	OKC 17:52	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 1928 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:55	OKC 19:50	18%	9%	0.7%	83%
UA 1184 United Flight history →	DEN 17:31	OKC 20:11	20%	9%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON