Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1705 DEN 08:31 → OMA 11:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest WN 1707 DEN 16:37 → OMA 19:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1705 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:31	OMA 11:07	6%	1%	0.4%	68%
WN 1306 Southwest	DEN 10:37	OMA 13:14	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
OO 4802 SkyWest	DEN 15:38	OMA 18:20	8%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1633 United	DEN 10:16	OMA 13:04	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2327 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	OMA 16:24	11%	4%	0.5%	84%
UA 1436 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	OMA 20:42	15%	6%	0.5%	66%
WN 1707 Southwest	DEN 16:37	OMA 19:14	16%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON