Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1377 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1377 DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1317 DEN 18:02 → ORD 21:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1377 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	ORD 09:42	4%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1928 United Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ORD 11:16	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	ORD 11:43	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2771 American Flight history →	DEN 07:16	ORD 11:00	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
UA 2329 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	ORD 13:15	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 1229 American	DEN 08:14	ORD 11:45	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2559 American Flight history →	DEN 10:40	ORD 14:17	16%	7%	0.8%	83%
UA 2865 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	ORD 14:55	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
MQ 3964 Envoy	DEN 09:06	ORD 12:30	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2363 American Flight history →	DEN 12:26	ORD 15:57	20%	8%	0.9%	78%
UA 617 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	ORD 17:05	20%	7%	0.6%	68%
UA 2272 United	DEN 18:10	ORD 21:43	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1411 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	ORD 21:39	23%	7%	0.6%	50%
AA 1277 American	DEN 14:21	ORD 17:59	23%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 1023 United Flight history →	DEN 15:01	ORD 18:46	24%	9%	0.6%	61%
UA 675 United Flight history →	DEN 16:29	ORD 20:14	25%	9%	0.6%	58%
UA 1131 United Flight history →	DEN 16:36	ORD 20:09	25%	10%	0.6%	71%
AA 1317 American	DEN 18:02	ORD 21:34	25%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON