Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 680 United Flight history →	DEN 17:58	ORF 23:33	17%	6%	0.6%	71%
WN 4661 Southwest	DEN 11:46	ORF 17:23	17%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925	6h 31m	99%	89%
United Details →	DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa	6h 04m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:07 → ATL 17:10DL 995	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731	8h 23m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 35m	98%	86%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 12:16 → ORF 15:41UA 2807	7h 41m	99%	83%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:30 → ORF 14:48AA 2282	7h 48m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346	6h 02m	95%	80%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 15:17 → ORF 16:43AA 2651	8h 02m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON