Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3459 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3459 DEN 08:36 → PDX 10:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 332 DEN 17:21 → PDX 19:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3459 Southwest	DEN 08:36	PDX 10:19	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1247 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	PDX 09:47	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 2455 United Flight history →	DEN 13:27	PDX 15:13	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
F9 2553 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:57	PDX 11:57	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
AS 465 Alaska	DEN 08:08	PDX 09:49	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:02	PDX 13:46	12%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 644 United Flight history →	DEN 11:27	PDX 13:09	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1337 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	PDX 17:46	13%	6%	0.5%	84%
WN 1717 Southwest	DEN 12:38	PDX 14:22	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 332 Southwest	DEN 17:21	PDX 19:07	22%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON