Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 516 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 516 DEN 06:54 → PHL 12:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1923 DEN 13:31 → PHL 19:12 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 516 American Flight history →	DEN 06:54	PHL 12:41	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	PHL 15:12	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 2787 United	DEN 13:49	PHL 19:32	18%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 811 American	DEN 10:24	PHL 16:11	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1510 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	PHL 23:30	20%	8%	0.6%	58%
AA 814 American	DEN 14:46	PHL 20:34	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2491 American Flight history →	DEN 12:58	PHL 18:43	21%	7%	0.6%	73%
WN 1723 Southwest	DEN 11:01	PHL 16:43	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1923 Southwest	DEN 13:31	PHL 19:12	25%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON