Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4256 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4256 DEN 05:57 → PHX 07:00 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1714 DEN 17:31 → PHX 18:27 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4256 Southwest	DEN 05:57	PHX 07:00	1%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2678 Southwest	DEN 07:47	PHX 08:47	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1728 Southwest	DEN 08:42	PHX 09:42	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2303 Southwest	DEN 09:42	PHX 10:43	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 1375 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:52	PHX 08:01	8%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 1404 American Flight history →	DEN 07:13	PHX 08:08	10%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1481 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PHX 09:00	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 1730 Southwest	DEN 12:02	PHX 13:01	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1782 United	DEN 09:50	PHX 10:55	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1686 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	PHX 12:25	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
WN 1729 Southwest	DEN 14:21	PHX 15:21	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1254 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	PHX 16:35	15%	7%	0.5%	82%
WN 550 Southwest	DEN 15:46	PHX 16:44	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2602 American Flight history →	DEN 12:15	PHX 13:18	17%	9%	0.6%	36%
UA 631 United Flight history →	DEN 13:24	PHX 14:26	17%	7%	0.6%	88%
OO 4944 SkyWest	DEN 18:54	PHX 20:16	18%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1507 United	DEN 18:30	PHX 19:30	20%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 2105 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:16	PHX 14:23	20%	8%	0.6%	85%
WN 1734 Southwest	DEN 18:36	PHX 19:34	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1714 Southwest	DEN 17:31	PHX 18:27	25%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON