Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1308 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1308 DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 4424 DEN 15:21 → PIT 20:27 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1308 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	PIT 15:16	12%	4%	0.5%	85%
WN 1739 Southwest	DEN 10:37	PIT 15:42	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2155 United Flight history →	DEN 17:38	PIT 22:45	21%	7%	0.6%	71%
WN 4424 Southwest	DEN 15:21	PIT 20:27	25%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON