Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1891 United	DEN 11:21	PNS 15:21	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 3930 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:29	PNS 14:33	14%	4%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 15m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	6h 58m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	8h 12m	100%	85%
United Details →	DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 24m	100%	83%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 11:06 → PNS 13:36UA 2492	6h 36m	98%	82%
United Details →	DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599	3h 03m Houston	IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa	7h 24m	98%	79%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:04 → PNS 13:03AA 2863	7h 03m	99%	76%
American Details →	DEN 06:20 → DFW 09:27AA 3285	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:55 → PNS 14:53AA 2328	7h 33m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON