tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 463 at 11:15, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 463 SkyWest DEN 11:15 PSC 12:49 15% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pasco is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13DL 2544 3h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:47 → PSC 11:38DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest 6h 58m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DEN 12:45 → SLC 14:20DL 1553 1h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 4h 53m 96% 87%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:06AS 682 2h 22m Seattle SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon 6h 10m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731 2h 09m Seattle SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 16:36 → SEA 18:38AS 535 2h 57m Seattle SEA 21:35 → PSC 22:37AS 2417 · flown by Horizon 7h 01m 97% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON