tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 372 at 10:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 372 United Flight history → DEN 10:00 PWM 15:55 14% 4% 0.6% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745 3h 11m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 7h 56m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → DEN 00:02 → EWR 06:04UA 1745 1h 41m Newark EWR 07:45 → PWM 09:11UA 3665 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:58 → PHL 18:43AA 2491 2h 17m Philadelphia PHL 21:00 → PWM 22:33AA 1889 7h 35m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771 2h 06m Chicago ORD 13:06 → PWM 16:41AA 4741 · flown by Republic 7h 25m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377 1h 18m Chicago ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804 6h 31m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 13:52 → PWM 16:31AA 1747 7h 50m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → DEN 11:09 → CLT 16:32AA 3299 3h 47m Charlotte CLT 20:19 → PWM 22:36AA 2120 9h 27m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 3h 13m Chicago ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41UA 1401 8h 26m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON