Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4674 DEN 10:05 → RAP 11:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 5225 DEN 17:55 → RAP 19:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4674 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	RAP 11:30	10%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 5556 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 12:54	RAP 14:13	11%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 5891 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:30	RAP 15:54	12%	4%	0.5%	74%
UA 1585 United	DEN 11:10	RAP 12:31	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5225 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	RAP 19:24	14%	6%	0.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON