Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4298 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4298 DEN 08:36 → RNO 09:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 669 DEN 17:06 → RNO 18:25 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4298 Southwest	DEN 08:36	RNO 09:54	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 5335 SkyWest	DEN 08:29	RNO 10:15	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2167 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	RNO 12:39	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
OO 4736 SkyWest	DEN 13:44	RNO 15:08	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1604 United Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:36	16%	7%	0.6%	85%
WN 669 Southwest	DEN 17:06	RNO 18:25	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON