Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1753 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1753 DEN 07:36 → SAN 08:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1133 DEN 18:11 → SAN 19:32 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1753 Southwest	DEN 07:36	SAN 08:58	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1754 Southwest	DEN 08:36	SAN 09:58	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1424 Alaska	DEN 06:19	SAN 07:40	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2309 United Flight history →	DEN 07:43	SAN 09:05	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1302 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	SAN 14:55	19%	7%	0.6%	87%
F9 2817 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:23	SAN 15:52	21%	9%	0.9%	83%
UA 1940 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	SAN 12:41	22%	9%	0.6%	82%
UA 1281 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SAN 17:20	23%	9%	0.6%	85%
AS 1422 Alaska	DEN 13:42	SAN 15:00	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1771 Southwest	DEN 14:11	SAN 15:32	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4263 Southwest	DEN 16:11	SAN 17:32	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1755 Southwest	DEN 11:06	SAN 12:27	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest	DEN 18:11	SAN 19:32	32%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON