Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1760 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1760 DEN 07:01 → SAT 10:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4678 DEN 16:44 → SAT 20:06 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1760 Southwest	DEN 07:01	SAT 10:17	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 1311 Southwest	DEN 10:31	SAT 13:48	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2625 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	SAT 12:43	9%	3%	0.5%	92%
UA 1022 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	SAT 16:55	11%	5%	0.5%	90%
WN 1245 Southwest	DEN 15:19	SAT 18:42	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2819 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	SAT 20:54	17%	8%	0.5%	61%
F9 2356 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:30	SAT 18:44	18%	7%	0.6%	82%
WN 4678 Southwest	DEN 16:44	SAT 20:06	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON