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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 671 at 11:26, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 671 United Flight history → DEN 11:26 SBA 13:02 19% 5% 0.8% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13DL 2544 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 7h 19m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 08:31 → OAK 10:03WN 1696 3h 33m Oakland OAK 13:36 → SBA 14:57WN 2117 7h 26m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:04 → SBA 11:31AA 1822 7h 31m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 12:49 → SBA 13:45UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest 6h 45m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404 1h 58m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → SBA 11:56AA 2928 5h 43m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 7h 37m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:06AS 682 1h 53m Seattle SEA 15:59 → SBA 18:23AS 610 7h 06m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 46m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 64% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON