Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1479 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1479 DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 514 DEN 17:51 → SDF 22:36 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1479 United Flight history →	DEN 09:45	SDF 14:28	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 1766 Southwest	DEN 13:46	SDF 18:24	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 514 United Flight history →	DEN 17:51	SDF 22:36	21%	8%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON