Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1731 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1731 DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1769 DEN 18:31 → SEA 20:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1731 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:30	SEA 08:26	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 2833 United	DEN 14:13	SEA 16:22	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1348 United	DEN 08:03	SEA 09:53	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	DEN 13:03	SEA 15:05	18%	4%	0.5%	80%
UA 2013 United Flight history →	DEN 15:58	SEA 17:59	19%	7%	0.6%	80%
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:39	SEA 20:41	20%	5%	0.6%	57%
UA 2058 United	DEN 11:24	SEA 13:14	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 682 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:17	SEA 14:06	21%	5%	0.6%	83%
F9 1175 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:02	SEA 15:01	23%	6%	0.7%	81%
AS 535 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 16:36	SEA 18:38	23%	6%	0.6%	67%
WN 447 Southwest	DEN 11:31	SEA 13:16	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 309 Alaska	DEN 17:40	SEA 19:31	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4392 Southwest	DEN 08:31	SEA 10:17	27%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 317 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 08:40	SEA 10:42	28%	4%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
WN 1769 Southwest	DEN 18:31	SEA 20:19	31%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON