Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2367 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2367 DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1229 DEN 08:56 → SFO 10:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2367 United Flight history →	DEN 05:15	SFO 06:53	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 2265 United	DEN 06:08	SFO 08:04	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 3435 Frontier	DEN 06:52	SFO 08:37	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2391 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SFO 09:18	19%	6%	0.6%	71%
UA 2633 United Flight history →	DEN 15:47	SFO 17:30	22%	12%	0.6%	73%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	DEN 11:21	SFO 13:04	23%	10%	0.6%	72%
UA 1812 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SFO 15:09	23%	11%	0.6%	76%
WN 4303 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:36	SFO 10:09	24%	6%	0.6%	10%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	SFO 19:40	24%	11%	0.5%	68%
WN 1772 Southwest	DEN 11:46	SFO 13:22	29%	10%	0.5%	no record
UA 1506 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	SFO 11:25	29%	9%	0.6%	48%
F9 1229 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:56	SFO 10:40	30%	10%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON