Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1775 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1775 DEN 08:31 → SJC 10:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1217 DEN 18:36 → SJC 20:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1775 Southwest	DEN 08:31	SJC 10:08	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2031 United	DEN 08:00	SJC 09:40	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4387 Southwest	DEN 10:06	SJC 11:42	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1256 United	DEN 11:30	SJC 13:09	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1883 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SJC 17:35	16%	9%	0.5%	72%
WN 1777 Southwest	DEN 16:51	SJC 18:31	23%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1217 Southwest	DEN 18:36	SJC 20:14	26%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON