Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1780 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1780 DEN 06:06 → SLC 07:37 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4552 DEN 15:27 → SLC 16:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1780 Southwest	DEN 06:06	SLC 07:37	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2544 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:40	SLC 07:13	3%	1%	0.4%	87%
DL 1581 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:05	SLC 08:36	4%	2%	0.4%	92%
WN 3502 Southwest	DEN 08:41	SLC 10:12	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 6102 SkyWest	DEN 07:13	SLC 08:55	5%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 497 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SLC 09:37	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
F9 3219 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:59	SLC 10:39	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1317 Delta	DEN 10:45	SLC 12:13	10%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:45	SLC 14:20	11%	4%	0.4%	84%
OO 5741 SkyWest	DEN 15:40	SLC 17:15	12%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1963 United Flight history →	DEN 11:40	SLC 13:13	13%	4%	0.5%	80%
OO 449 SkyWest	DEN 18:01	SLC 19:36	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4787 SkyWest	DEN 16:46	SLC 18:21	15%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 3861 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:40	SLC 15:20	15%	5%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
UA 1840 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	SLC 15:13	15%	5%	0.5%	84%
WN 4900 Southwest	DEN 13:16	SLC 14:46	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:01	SLC 19:31	17%	5%	0.4%	84%
WN 2330 Southwest	DEN 14:22	SLC 15:52	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2567 Southwest	DEN 16:47	SLC 18:19	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4552 Southwest	DEN 15:27	SLC 16:58	20%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON