Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1787 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1787 DEN 08:36 → SMF 10:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1790 DEN 18:41 → SMF 20:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1787 Southwest	DEN 08:36	SMF 10:05	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2149 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SMF 09:35	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
F9 3665 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:59	SMF 10:38	13%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 2673 United	DEN 11:41	SMF 13:19	14%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1788 Southwest	DEN 12:20	SMF 13:50	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 662 United Flight history →	DEN 13:35	SMF 15:10	16%	6%	0.5%	83%
UA 1208 United Flight history →	DEN 16:03	SMF 17:41	17%	7%	0.5%	82%
WN 2472 Southwest	DEN 15:51	SMF 17:22	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1790 Southwest	DEN 18:41	SMF 20:12	27%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON