Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1849 DEN 08:31 → SNA 09:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1794 DEN 12:46 → SNA 14:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1849 Southwest	DEN 08:31	SNA 09:50	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2666 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SNA 09:07	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 2727 Southwest	DEN 10:01	SNA 11:21	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1707 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SNA 14:57	13%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 1497 United	DEN 16:14	SNA 17:54	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 4371 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:00	SNA 10:28	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 1320 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	SNA 12:51	14%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 1794 Southwest	DEN 12:46	SNA 14:06	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON