Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1796 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1796 DEN 05:51 → STL 08:59 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1725 DEN 16:51 → STL 20:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1796 Southwest	DEN 05:51	STL 08:59	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3140 Southwest	DEN 07:06	STL 10:16	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1798 Southwest	DEN 10:33	STL 13:43	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 652 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	STL 12:42	13%	3%	0.5%	84%
UA 1639 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	STL 16:33	18%	4%	0.5%	87%
WN 4400 Southwest	DEN 13:55	STL 17:04	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1422 United Flight history →	DEN 17:34	STL 20:43	22%	6%	0.5%	72%
WN 1725 Southwest	DEN 16:51	STL 20:02	22%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON