Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 717 at 12:03, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 717 SkyWest	DEN 12:03	SUN 13:59	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093	2h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 10:26 → SUN 13:45UA 5379 · flown by SkyWest	7h 41m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:06AS 682	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	6h 44m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON