Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1807 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1807 DEN 05:01 → TPA 10:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1809 DEN 15:51 → TPA 21:22 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1807 Southwest	DEN 05:01	TPA 10:30	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1010 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	TPA 15:14	13%	3%	0.7%	89%
F9 2748 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:23	TPA 16:59	15%	5%	0.9%	86%
WN 1260 Southwest	DEN 10:29	TPA 15:59	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2375 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	TPA 19:33	16%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 1961 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	TPA 23:17	21%	6%	0.6%	71%
WN 1809 Southwest	DEN 15:51	TPA 21:22	24%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON