Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1969 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1969 DEN 08:36 → TUS 09:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2047 DEN 17:01 → TUS 18:11 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1969 Southwest	DEN 08:36	TUS 09:51	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1511 United	DEN 07:40	TUS 08:58	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1188 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	TUS 12:32	16%	5%	0.6%	86%
OO 5873 SkyWest	DEN 15:46	TUS 17:06	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2170 Southwest	DEN 13:27	TUS 14:41	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2047 Southwest	DEN 17:01	TUS 18:11	26%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON