Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2420 at 09:56, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2420 United Flight history →	DEN 09:56	TVC 14:49	16%	4%	0.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096	2h 42m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	98%	84%
American Details →	DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771	57m Chicago	ORD 11:57 → TVC 14:10AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	90%	64%
Delta Details →	DEN 08:47 → MSP 11:44DL 2877	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	7h 08m	99%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON