Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1241 DEN 10:55 → TYS 15:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2473 DEN 17:25 → TYS 22:19 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1241 United	DEN 10:55	TYS 15:53	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
G4 3021 Allegiant	DEN 08:27	TYS 13:17	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1826 Southwest	DEN 14:06	TYS 18:57	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2473 United Flight history →	DEN 17:25	TYS 22:19	16%	6%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON