Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5267 DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 4344 DEN 15:52 → XNA 18:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5267 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:50	XNA 12:47	14%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 5641 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	XNA 16:25	14%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 1351 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	XNA 20:48	18%	8%	0.6%	75%
F9 4344 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:52	XNA 18:55	20%	6%	0.7%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON