Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3535 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3535 DFW 09:03 → ABQ 09:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2698 DFW 18:23 → ABQ 19:20 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:03	ABQ 09:58	11%	2%	0.9%	80%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:43	ABQ 11:33	13%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:03	ABQ 13:53	14%	3%	0.9%	76%
AA 3053 American	DFW 14:22	ABQ 15:19	24%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 9 American Flight history →	DFW 16:01	ABQ 16:58	27%	11%	0.9%	64%
AA 2698 American Flight history →	DFW 18:23	ABQ 19:20	32%	11%	1.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON