Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Charlotte, leaving 04:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Albany on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albany is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091	1h 46m Charlotte	CLT 10:24 → ALB 12:46AA 710	6h 51m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 41m Detroit	DTW 10:45 → ALB 12:28DL 3810 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	98%	86%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 14:14 → ALB 16:36AA 1075	8h 36m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → ALB 17:46DL 1241	6h 40m	99%	83%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → ALB 15:26UA 2792	7h 18m	98%	80%
American Details →	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	1h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 13:05 → ALB 14:29AA 6028 · flown by Piedmont	6h 01m	93%	80%
American Details →	DFW 08:38 → ORD 11:14AA 328	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 14:52 → ALB 17:54AA 4240 · flown by Envoy	8h 16m	99%	80%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	3h 49m Charlotte	CLT 19:25 → ALB 21:46AA 589	8h 51m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 16:18 → PHL 20:56AA 1945	54m Philadelphia	PHL 21:50 → ALB 23:23AA 5877 · flown by Piedmont	6h 05m	69%	55%
United Details →	DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240	46m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → ALB 23:47UA 4321 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 32m	66%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON