Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3920 DFW 08:44 → AMA 10:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3789 DFW 17:20 → AMA 18:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:44	AMA 10:09	7%	2%	1.1%	91%
MQ 3337 Envoy	DFW 10:48	AMA 12:07	9%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:09	AMA 14:28	11%	3%	1.2%	86%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:24	AMA 15:43	11%	3%	1.3%	84%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:20	AMA 18:39	12%	3%	1.3%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON