Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 399 American Flight history →	DFW 15:09	ANC 19:27	27%	6%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 47m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49AS 646	1h 41m Portland	PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:25 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon	9h 40m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434	11h 33m	99%	73%
United Details →	DFW 10:42 → ORD 13:19UA 1634	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461	12h 06m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440	10h 08m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 16:59 → ANC 19:38AS 225	9h 36m	93%	70%
American Details →	DFW 11:26 → ORD 14:00AA 1285	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 17:05 → ANC 21:06AA 375	12h 40m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	51m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434	8h 57m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON