Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 401 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 401 DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3212 DFW 17:31 → ATL 20:57 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 401 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	ATL 08:34	3%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 893 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:45	ATL 09:59	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:06	ATL 13:25	6%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:17	ATL 15:35	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:50	ATL 17:14	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 820 American Flight history →	DFW 07:12	ATL 10:34	10%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:24	ATL 19:36	12%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	DFW 09:24	ATL 12:54	13%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:32	ATL 21:59	13%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 1008 American Flight history →	DFW 12:09	ATL 15:39	16%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	DFW 11:01	ATL 14:31	17%	5%	0.7%	82%
F9 2494 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:02	ATL 11:25	18%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 2398 American	DFW 13:18	ATL 16:48	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2403 American Flight history →	DFW 16:06	ATL 19:36	25%	9%	0.7%	66%
F9 2496 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:24	ATL 16:45	29%	9%	0.7%	50%
AA 3212 American Flight history →	DFW 17:31	ATL 20:57	29%	9%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON