Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1643 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1643 DFW 07:21 → AUS 08:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 576 DFW 18:54 → AUS 20:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1643 American Flight history →	DFW 07:21	AUS 08:33	11%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 794 American Flight history →	DFW 08:37	AUS 09:49	13%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 3054 American Flight history →	DFW 09:35	AUS 10:47	16%	5%	0.8%	74%
MQ 3348 Envoy	DFW 18:14	AUS 19:20	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1070 American	DFW 10:43	AUS 11:55	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:16	AUS 18:22	18%	4%	1.0%	61%
AA 1852 American	DFW 12:33	AUS 13:46	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1073 American	DFW 13:14	AUS 14:26	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2103 American	DFW 14:36	AUS 15:48	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1146 American	DFW 15:56	AUS 17:09	28%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 576 American Flight history →	DFW 18:54	AUS 20:06	31%	11%	1.1%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON