Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3361 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3361 DFW 07:13 → BHM 09:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5610 DFW 14:35 → BHM 16:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3361 Envoy	DFW 07:13	BHM 09:13	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3884 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:03	BHM 14:58	10%	3%	0.8%	81%
MQ 3359 Envoy	DFW 17:16	BHM 19:13	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5530 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:40	BHM 11:33	14%	6%	0.8%	61%
AA 5610 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:35	BHM 16:28	18%	8%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON