Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4095 at 10:53, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:53	BIL 13:03	7%	2%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	99%	91%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 773	1h 01m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	96%	88%
American Details →	DFW 05:47 → ORD 08:13AA 2999	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 09:44 → BIL 11:41AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	6h 54m	98%	88%
United Details →	DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	1h 24m Seattle	SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon	7h 41m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON