Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1103 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1103 DFW 07:20 → BNA 09:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest F9 3052 DFW 16:17 → BNA 18:24 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1103 American Flight history →	DFW 07:20	BNA 09:24	9%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	DFW 09:55	BNA 11:58	15%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 1084 American	DFW 12:52	BNA 14:57	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2244 American Flight history →	DFW 15:31	BNA 17:38	24%	9%	0.8%	65%
AA 2979 American Flight history →	DFW 19:31	BNA 21:34	25%	9%	0.9%	57%
AA 1181 American	DFW 14:07	BNA 16:10	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1199 American	DFW 16:45	BNA 18:48	26%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1076 American Flight history →	DFW 18:18	BNA 20:17	27%	9%	0.9%	61%
F9 3052 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:17	BNA 18:24	29%	9%	1.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON